Newly Published Boeing Resource on Airline Accidents

The primary mission of AirSafe.com is to provide airline passengers and aviation professionals with reliable information about plane crashes and other issues or events related to aviation safety and aviation security. AirSafe.com and the AirSafe.com Foundation can't do this alone. They both rely on publicly available information for news events like recent crashes and for reliable data for determining things like fatal event rates for aircraft models.

Some data, like plane crashes and accident investigation reports, are very easy to find, often widely publicized, and sometimes published by authoritative sources like government agencies. Other data, for example the number of airplane flights for a particular model, are much harder to find. One of the best sources for information about accident rates for specific airline models is an annual publication from Boeing, the Statistical Summary of Commercial Airplane Accidents. The newest edition, covering 2008, was published in July 2009, and it provides a summary of last year's accidents as well as comparative data on the accident rates of various aircraft models.

Some of the key data from this publication is included within AirSafe.com, especially the Fatal Events by Aircraft Model page. Boeing's Statistical Summary is one of the industry publications that has very high quality data, and should be consulted by anyone who has an interest in airline safety, especially to answer specific questions about airliner accident rates and how they have changed over the last several decades.


You can download the most recent edition which covers 2008, and the previous one covering 2007 below. If you have an interest in how data like this is used to answer complex aviation risk and safety questions, you can also download two resources from AirSafe.com: selected portions of the book Understanding Aviation Safety Data from AirSafe.com founder Dr. Todd Curtis, or you can register for the free online class on how to systematically ask and answer an aviation safety question.

2008 Statistical Summary
2007 Statistical Summary
Online Class: How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question
Chapter 6 of Understanding Aviation Safety Data

16 Killed in Latest Iranian Plane Crash

24 July 2009; Aria Air Ilyushin 62M, Flight 1525; Mashhad, Iran: The aircraft was on a scheduled domestic flight from Tehran, Iran to Mashhad, Iran. After landing, there was a tire burst and the aircraft skidded on the runaway, hitting an airport fence and an electricity pylon.

The normal landing speed for an Ilyushin 62 would have been between 145 and 165 mph, but this accident aircraft reportedly landed at a speed of 197 mph. The airplane ran off the runway and collided with a wall located about a kilometer from the runway.

The front section of the aircraft was completely destroyed in the crash, and there were 16 fatalities among the 153 passengers and 13 crew members.

This is the first fatal crash for Aria Air, and the 12th fatal passenger crash for the Ilyushin 62 since it began passenger service in the 1960s. This crash comes less than ten days after the last fatal plane crash in Iran. All 168 passengers and crew on that Caspian Airlines flight were killed.

Shortly after the accident, the airline's flight certification license was revoked by the Iranian civil aviation authorities.

Fatal Events for Airlines from Africa and the Middle East
Aria Air Plane Crash Wikipedia page

Caspian Airlines Crash Kills All On Board

15 July 2009; Caspian Airlines Tu154M, Flight 7908; near Jannatabad, Iran: The aircraft was on a scheduled international flight from Tehran, Iran to Yerevan, Armenia, and crashed near a village in the Qazvin region of Iran about 16 minutes after takeoff.

The aircraft was completely destroyed in the crash, and all 153 passengers and 15 crew members were killed. Among the victims were members of Iran's youth judo team, including eight athletes and two coaches.

This is the first fatal crash for Caspian Airlines, and the 19th fatal passenger crash involving the Tu154 since 1990. The most recent fatal Tu154 crash was an Iran Air Tours crash in September 2006. The Caspian Airlines crash represents the fourth fatal Tu154 airliner crash involving an Iranian airline. the previous three were all with Iran Air Tours.

Fatal Events for Airlines from Africa and the Middle East
Caspian Airlines Plane Crash Wikipedia page

Air France Flight 447 - the BBC Interviews

After more than a month, most of the wreckage and many of the victims of Air France Flight 447 remain lost at sea. The public's and the media's attention remain focused on the the causes of the crash and on the recovery of the black boxes.

This podcast features two interviews with Vincent Dowd from the BBC World Service. In the first interview on June 12th, 2009, we discussed several issues, including differences in flight control philosophy between Airbus and Boeing, and how aircraft manufacturers respond when one of their airplanes crash.

In the second interview, recorded on June 23rd 2009, we discussed the progress of the accident investigation. We also talked about how the circumstances of this accident showed how it may be possible to use advanced technologies to supplement or even replace the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder.

Please listen to the interviews, and feel free to send your comments or questions to AirSafe.com.

Resources
Listen to the Interviews (18:38)
Additional Accident Information
Other Air France Plane Crashes
Other Airbus A330 Plane Crashes
Earlier AirSafe.com Audio and Video Podcasts About the Accident

On Plane Crashes, Michael Jackson, and Things Happening in Threes

Michael Jackson's unexpected death generated massive amounts of international media attention about Michael Jackson. Coincidentally, actress Farrah Fawcett died earlier the same day, and both died only a couple of days after long time television personality Ed McMahon. The following ten days after Michael Jackson's death saw the deaths of infomercial pitchman Billy Mays, Oscar winning actor Karl Malden, and former Super Bowl quarterback Steve McNair.

This two week period of celebrity deaths raised the question in the minds of some that these kind of bad things "happen in threes" and having six of these in a row must be a highly unusual event.

AirSafe.com News readers may recall that in February 2009 I looked at the question of "things happening in threes" when it comes to plane crashes, and found out that for 12 of the 13 years that AirSafe.com has tracked fatal and significant plane crashes, there was at least one period where three or more events occurred with less than ten days separating each of them. There were seventeen sequences of these closely spaced sequences of crashes. Three were sequences of five events, three sequences had four events, and the other eleven consisted of three events each. In the first half of 2009, there have been a number of spectacular crashes, but no sequences of three or more separated by ten or fewer days.

The risk of plane crashes can't be treated like the risk of celebrity deaths, so it would not be fair to use the same criteria. For example, there isn't a universal definition of "celebrity," and some celebrities may have only national or regional audience. Also there are many people who may be famous, and much more widely known than most of the six recently deceased entertainment and sports figures mentioned above, but who are not celebrities. For example, former US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara died on July 6th. He had been a well-known, and at times famous, figure in US political and business circles for nearly five decades, but he was no celebrity.

Back to Micheal Jackson and plane crashes. Earlier this year, I wrote that plane crashes "happen in threes" if a crash is listed as a fatal or significant event on AirSafe.com and if there were no more than ten days separating each event in a series of three or more events. There was no scientific reason for picking ten days for airplanes, so with just as much justification, I'll pick seven days for American sports and entertainment celebrities. Over the past two weeks, there have been six events separated by less than seven days. Is this a situation like with airplanes, where this sort of thing happen almost every year? I'll leave that research to the entertainment media. AirSafe.com will stick to flying machines.

Recent Celebrity Deaths
23 June 2009 - Ed McMahon
25 June 2009 - Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson
28 June 2009 - Billy Mays
1 July 2009 - Karl Malden
4 July 2009 - Steve McNair

Plane Crashes Involving Celebrities

Yemenia A310-300 Crashes near Comoros Islands

30 June 2009; Yemenia Airlines; A310-300; Flight 626; near Moroni, Comoros Islands: The aircraft was on a flight from Sana’a, Yemen to Moroni, Comoros Islands with 142 passengers and 11 crew on board. Early reports indicate that the aircraft crashed in the sea near the town of Mitsamiouli, which is on the main island of Grande Comore, in the early morning hours of June 30th. Some bodies have been spotted, as well as some wreckage of the plane located. One passenger, a twelve-year-old girl named Bahia Bakari, was rescued about 10 hours after the crash, and is the sole survivor of this plane crash, one of 13 sole survivor events since 1970 that have been identified by AirSafe.com.


About the Comoros Islands
The nation of the Comoros Islands is an archipelago in the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Africa, between northern Madagascar and northeastern Mozambique. The last fatal plane crash in the Comoros Islands was the November 1996 crash of a hijacked Ethiopian Airlines 767.



About Yemenia Airlines
Yemenia Airlines has been in operation since 1961 and has no previous fatal plane crashes. Two previous serious incidents did not result in any serious injuries. On June 26, 2000, a 737 departed the side of the runway during a landing in Khartoum, Sudan, and the nose gear collapsed. On August 1, 2001, a Boeing 727 overran the runway at Asmara in Eritrea, and the main landing gear failed after the aircraft crashed into a large block of concrete.

With respect to meeting international standards, the two most prominent rating authorities are the FAA in the US and the European Commission. The FAA's International Aviation Safety Assessments (IASA) Program categorizes countries rather than airlines, but in their latest published summary from December 2008 did not rate Yemen, where Yemenia Airlines is based. Yemenia does not have any direct flights to or from the US. The European Commission restricts individual airlines or even individual aircraft, but their "blacklist" of airlines from April 2008 did not include Yemenia Airlines.

According to French Transport Minister Dominique Bussereau, the aircraft involved in today's crash had been inspected by French authorities in 2007 and a number of unspecified issues were found during that inspection. The aircraft had not been flown to or from France since then. Also, in February 2009, the European Union had suspended permission for Yemenia to service EU-registered aircraft the airline had failed a set of audit inspections.

About the A310
The aircraft has been in service since 1978 and has been involved in seven previous plane crashes that involved passenger fatalities. The most recent one was a June 2008 crash of a Sudan Airways A310-300 in Khartoum, Sudan. According to AirFleets.net, about 255 aircraft were produced, and about 190 remain in service. By far the largest current operator in world is FedEx, with about 62 aircraft in service.

Infomercial Celebrity Billy Mays Dies After Flight

Television infomercial celebrity Billy Mays died in his sleep less than a day after he was involved in a landing incident where he was struck in the head by one or more falling objects. US Airways Flight 1241, a 737-400, departed from Philadelphia, PA just after noon on June 27, 2009 on a nonstop flight to Tampa, FL.

The aircraft experienced a hard landing, which ruptured the two nose wheel tires. The aircraft remained on the runway and the 138 passengers and five crew members, none of whom at the time appeared to be seriously injured, were taken to the terminal. Billy Mays was interviewed by a reporter from WTVT television in Tampa shortly after the incident and stated that he had been hit on the head by something falling from the ceiling.

Billy Mays had returned to Tampa on Saturday in order to undergo hip surgery the following Monday. According to his family, he had no other significant medical conditions at the time of his death. Tampa police reported that Mays wasn't feeling well the evening of the landing incident, and he went to bed at about 10 pm. He was found dead by his wife at about 7:45 the following morning.
Listen to the 911 Call from the Home of Billy Mays (2:25)
Source: Tampa Fire Rescue

So far, a direct connection between the head strike on Billy Mays during the hard landing and his subsequent death has been neither ruled in or ruled out by local authorities. Although Mays reported that he was struck in the head, neither he or the Tampa police could confirm that he was struck by luggage. Local authorities will conduct an autopsy to determine the cause of death, and the results may be available before the end of June.

If the authorities determine that Mays's death was not connected to the landing incident, then the incident will be considered minor and would likely not end up in the online incident and accident databases of the FAA or NTSB. If the death is determined to be associated with the hard landing, then this would be considered a fatal accident by the NTSB, but would not likely result in a major investigation.

The most recent significant safety event for US Airways was the ditching of an A320 in the Hudson River last January. The last fatal crash for US Airways involved a regional aircraft in Charlotte, NC in January 2003. That crash killed both pilots and all 19 passengers. The most recent fatal event involving a 737-400 was a Garuda Indonesia Airways crash in 2007.

Dangers from falling luggage have long been recognized by the airline industry. In 1998, the Flight Safety Foundation published the results of a study that estimated that worldwide, there were about 10,000 injuries every year involving falling baggage. The same study looked at 397 cases at a major US airline where a person was struck by falling luggage, and 30 percent of those strikes resulted in bruises or lacerations.

For more information on how to protect yourself from threats from falling luggage due to hard landings and in-flight turbulence, please visit turbulence.airsafe.org.

Resources
Listen to the Podcast About This Event (3:00)
Plane Crashes and Significant Events for US Airways
Plane Crashes and Significant Events for the 737

Update 29 June 2009
Hillsborough County Medical Examiner Vernard Adams stated that preliminary results from the autopsy of Billy Mays indicates that he had hypertensive heart disease. He also said that Mays was taking the prescription painkillers Tramadol and hydrocodone for hip pain, and that pill counts indicate that Mays had been taking the correct amount of the drugs. Initial tests showed no evidence of head trauma. Hillsborough County includes the city of Tampa.