On Plane Crashes, Michael Jackson, and Things Happening in Threes

Michael Jackson's unexpected death generated massive amounts of international media attention about Michael Jackson. Coincidentally, actress Farrah Fawcett died earlier the same day, and both died only a couple of days after long time television personality Ed McMahon. The following ten days after Michael Jackson's death saw the deaths of infomercial pitchman Billy Mays, Oscar winning actor Karl Malden, and former Super Bowl quarterback Steve McNair.

This two week period of celebrity deaths raised the question in the minds of some that these kind of bad things "happen in threes" and having six of these in a row must be a highly unusual event.

AirSafe.com News readers may recall that in February 2009 I looked at the question of "things happening in threes" when it comes to plane crashes, and found out that for 12 of the 13 years that AirSafe.com has tracked fatal and significant plane crashes, there was at least one period where three or more events occurred with less than ten days separating each of them. There were seventeen sequences of these closely spaced sequences of crashes. Three were sequences of five events, three sequences had four events, and the other eleven consisted of three events each. In the first half of 2009, there have been a number of spectacular crashes, but no sequences of three or more separated by ten or fewer days.

The risk of plane crashes can't be treated like the risk of celebrity deaths, so it would not be fair to use the same criteria. For example, there isn't a universal definition of "celebrity," and some celebrities may have only national or regional audience. Also there are many people who may be famous, and much more widely known than most of the six recently deceased entertainment and sports figures mentioned above, but who are not celebrities. For example, former US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara died on July 6th. He had been a well-known, and at times famous, figure in US political and business circles for nearly five decades, but he was no celebrity.

Back to Micheal Jackson and plane crashes. Earlier this year, I wrote that plane crashes "happen in threes" if a crash is listed as a fatal or significant event on AirSafe.com and if there were no more than ten days separating each event in a series of three or more events. There was no scientific reason for picking ten days for airplanes, so with just as much justification, I'll pick seven days for American sports and entertainment celebrities. Over the past two weeks, there have been six events separated by less than seven days. Is this a situation like with airplanes, where this sort of thing happen almost every year? I'll leave that research to the entertainment media. AirSafe.com will stick to flying machines.

Recent Celebrity Deaths
23 June 2009 - Ed McMahon
25 June 2009 - Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson
28 June 2009 - Billy Mays
1 July 2009 - Karl Malden
4 July 2009 - Steve McNair

Plane Crashes Involving Celebrities