Update on the location of flight MH370

On 8 October 2014, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) released an update detailing their best estimate of the current location of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. The location of this 777, which went missing on 8 March 2014 with 227 passengers and 12 crew members who were on board, is unknown, and in the seven months since the aircraft went missing, no trace of the aircraft, its passengers, or its cargo have been found.

In spite of this lack of direct, physical evidence, information from other sources, including radar data and signals sent from the aircraft to an INMARSAT satellite, were used to estimate both the duration of flight for the aircraft, and its approximate position when the aircraft presumably ran out of fuel over the southern Indian Ocean.

After an initial underwater search was ended last May, the ATSB, along with support from other nations, has spent considerable time producing more detailed maps of the seafloor in the vicinity of the proposed search areas, and refining the estimate of the likely location of the aircraft. The recent ATSB analysis, which included simulations of various end of flight scenarios, came to the following conclusions

• The last satellite communication occurred very near the estimated time of fuel exhaustion.
• The ATSB, Boeing, and Malaysia Airlines have been working on various end of flight scenarios.
• In a scenario involving fuel exhaustion with no control inputs, the aircraft entered a descending, spiraling low bank angle left turn and entered the water in a relatively short distance after the last engine flameout.
• The results of the new analyses support the search area defined in an earlier ATSB report from June 2014.

While the government of Malaysia has the overall responsibility for the search for the aircraft, the government of Australia, at the request of the Malaysian government, is leading the search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370

Related resources
ATSB flight path update from 8 October 2014
ATSB definition of underwater search area
AirSafe.com flight MH370 page

Photo: ATSB

New search area for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370

26 June 2014, Canberra, Australia - Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss announced a new search area for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. Based on a revised analysis of information from the aircraft and from the Inmarsat satellite, this new search area is several hundred miles away from the areas that were extensively searched from late April to late May of this year.

The highlights of today's announcement included the following:

• The new primary search area is about 60,000 square kilometers, which is about the size of the state of West Virginia, or the nation of Norway.

• The area to be searched is previously uncharted, and a three-month charting effort involving two ships is currently underway.

• The underwater search effort will commence in August, and is expected to last 12 months.

---

Primary search area in orange lies southwest of earlier search areas in red, yellow, and green

---

Updated analyses refocused search area
To date, no physical or photographic evidence from the aircraft has been recovered from the surface or the bottom of the ocean, and Australian officials, who are in charge of the search effort, have concluded that acoustic signals that were the focus of the earlier underwater search during April and May of this year are unlikely to have been associated with the missing aircraft.

A new and more extensive analysis of data from the Inmarsat satellite, and analysis of the performance of the aircraft, led to the identification of the new search area.

The analysis team, which included satellite and aircraft specialists from Boeing, the NTSB, Inmarsat, and several other organizations, uses the limited data that was transmitted between the aircraft and the ground, radar and other flight data from the early part of the flight, and combined that information with the known behavior of the aircraft's systems, to determine the new search areas. The search areas were identified using the aggregate result of five independent analyses.

Satellite communications with the aircraft
The recently released report stated that after normal communications between the aircraft and the ground ceased, and after the last recorded radar contact with the aircraft, that there were nine satellite communications attempts either to or from the aircraft. Two were unanswered ground to air telephone calls, and seven were 'handshake' signals between the aircraft and Inmarsat. These signals consistent of short messages with no significant data about the aircraft speed, position, or status.

An analysis of the seven handshake signals allowed the authorities to estimate the distance the aircraft traveled. The timing of last transmitted handshake signal was consistent with a shutdown of the engine electrical generators due engine flameouts due to fuel starvation.

Additional insights into the investigation
Earlier in the week, on June 23rd, Todd Curtis of AirSafe.com was interviewed on CJOB radio in Winnipeg, Canada on the progress of the investigation. Part of the interview concerned recent statements by the Malaysian authorities that if the plane was lost by deliberate action, then the captain would be the main suspect.

Resources
26 June 2014 report from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau
29 May 2014 update from the Australian JACC
ATSB determination of search area
Ocean mapping effort
Satellite communications logs
Additional information from the Ministry of Transport
AirSafe.com MH370 page

Graphics: Australian Transport Safety Bureau

11 weeks and counting in the search for MH370

30 May 2014 - It's been over 11 weeks since Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 went missing, and it is likely that it will be two months or more before a search of the Indian Ocean for the missing 777 will resume. Among the recent highlights are the following:

• The Malaysian government, specifically the Ministry of Transport, has released very detailed data about the information from Inmarsat that was used to narrow the search area.

• While some recent media reports have cited unofficial sources that have suggested that acoustic signals heard several weeks ago were not from the aircraft (a discovery that led to an extensive underwater search in the area of the pings), there has yet to be any official announcement from the investigating authorities.

• The Australian government has concluded that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections is complete, and that general area (about 850 square kilometers) is now being discounted as the final resting place of MH370.

• The Australian government, which is leading the search for the aircraft on behalf of the Malaysian government, has suspended its active search for the aircraft, and is planning an extensive mapping effort of an area of the Indian Ocean that is about 60,000 square kilometers, or about the size of the state of West Virginia, or the nation of Sri Lanka.

• The mapping effort will take about three months, and the Australia Transport Safety Bureau, which is leading the search effort, plans to resume the search for the aircraft in August.

Resources
29 May 2014 update from the Australian JACC
ATSB determination of search area
Ocean mapping effort
Satellite communications logs
Additional information from the Ministry of Transport
AirSafe.com MH370 page

Reporter Allegedly Fired for Writing Stories About Emirates Airlines Safety Violations

In a story published on 29 October 2009, Reporters Without Borders discussed the firing of Courtney C. Radsch, a US journalist who recently lost her job at the Al Arabiya news website (www.alarabiya.net) in the United Arab Emirates for posting information about safety violations by the national air carrier, Emirates Airlines.

The article, which was based in part on information obtained from a Freedom of Information Act request from the FAA, was first published on 4 October 2009 and she took it down about six hours later, in part out of pressure from Al Arabiya and also out fear of being arrested and fined by the government of the UAE. After being fired, she had her work visa canceled, and has subsequently left the UAE.

You can read the full story at her Arab Media blog. The name of the coauthor, who is still working at Al Arabiya, was removed from the story. It is otherwise intact.

The accident that was discussed in Radsch's story was a March 2009 landing accident in Melbourne, Australia involving an Emirates A340. The investigation into that accident was featured in an AirSafeNews.com article last May. The article includes links to the preliminary accident report, as well as to a press conference involving the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

AirSafe.com encourages you to read Radsch's article, and the preliminary findings of the ATSB investigation. Please feel free to leave comments on this article or to contact AirSafe.com with other information that may shed light on the circumstances around the Emirates accident, or about the efforts to keep that story out of the the public eye, especially in the UAE.

Additional Comments
You can find a number of additional comments from aviation professionals at the Professional Pilots Rumor Network.

Emirates A340 Accident Report Released

On 20 March 2009, an Emirates A340 aircraft, with 275 passengers and crew on board, was involved in a tail strike accident during takeoff from Melbourne, Australia. The aircraft suffered some damage, but there were no injuries to anyone on board. The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) recently released preliminary findings that indicated that an incorrect weight had been used when making performance calculations prior to departure. The calculations were based on a takeoff weight that was 100 tons below the actual takeoff weight of the aircraft.

This is the first accident involving an Emirates A340. Previously, in 2004, there was an Emirates A340 incident involving a runway overrun in Johannesburg, South Africa.

What sets this preliminary report apart from most is that the ATSB releases substantially more information at this stage than most accident investigation authorities. While the NTSB sometimes releases this level of preliminary information for major accidents that have tremendous media attention, it has not provided that kind of detail for other kinds of accidents.

Below are links to an audio of the ATSB press conference about the release of this report, a summary of the accident, and other accident details.

Abstract of Preliminary Report
Media Release from 30 April 2009
Preliminary Accident Report
Audio of ATSB Briefing from 30 April 2009 (21:10)
Other A340 Plane Crashes
Other Emirates Safety Events

Interview with a Passenger on the Qantas A330 Accident Flight of 7 October 2008

This show features an interview with Keesin Ng, a passengers on a Qantas A330 aircraft that experienced a violent in-flight upset during a flight from Singapore to Perth on 7 October 2008. About 75 passengers and crew members were injured during this event, with 14 hospitalized with serious injuries such as fractures and lacerations.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau, or ATSB, is currently investigating this event, and because of the extent of the injuries on board, the ATSB has classified it as an accident. In a media briefing three days after the accident, the ATSB reported that the Qantas A330-300 aircraft was in level flight at 37,000 feet when the pilots received messages from their aircraft's monitoring system indicating some kind of control system problem.

The aircraft reportedly had a uncommanded climb of about 200 feet, followed by a return back to 37,000 feet. About a minute after returning to cruising altitude, the aircraft abruptly pitched nose-down, to a maximum angle of about 8.4 degrees, and descended about 650 feet in about 20 seconds, before returning to the cruising level.

About 70 seconds later, there was a further nose-down pitch, to a maximum pitch angle of about 3.5 degrees, and the aircraft descended about 400 feet in about 16 seconds. During the first pitch-down event, a number of passengers and crew members were thrown about the cabin, resulting in a range of injuries.

The crew declared an emergency and diverted to Learmonth, landing about 40 minutes after the start of the event.

The interview occurred three days after the event with passenger Keesin Ng, who provides additional details about the in-flight drama. You can hear that interview at the link below:

Interview with Keesin Ng (MP3)

For additional information, including AirSafe.com's initial video and audio podcast about the accident and updates to the ATSB's accident investigation, visit qantas.airsafe.org