Early Findings in the Investigation of the Polish President's Plane Crash

While the investigation into the crash is in its early stages, some facts about the circumstances around the crash are coming into focus.

Number of Victims
Early media reports gave the number of people on board the aircraft as either 96 or 97. It looks like the confusion was due to the passenger list from Polish authorities that listed 89 passengers. Apparently one passenger did not make the flight.

Crash details
The aircraft, a Polish Air Force Tupolev TU-154M, had been on a nonstop flight from Warsaw, Poland to Smolensk North Airport (a military installation) near Smolensk, Russia. At the time of the crash, there was dense fog in the area. Reportedly, Russia's Prime Minister Putin was briefed by local officials and told that the required horizontal visibility for the approach to the airbase would have been 1000 meters, with actual visibility of only 400 meters at the time of the crash.

Unlike many large international airports, this airport did not have an instrument landing system designed for poor visibility conditions, but rather a less sophisticated system using a non-directional beacon.

Russia's Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) is the organization responsible for investigating this accident. According to a 1998 memorandum of understanding between the US and Russian governments, this would be the same organization that would be responsible for investigating any accidents involving US registered aircraft in Russian territory. AirSafe.com is unaware if the Polish government has a similar memorandum of understanding.

According to the IAC, preliminary analysis of the flight data and cockpit voice recorders indicated that the airplane impacted trees 1050 meters short of the runway threshold and about 40 to 45 meters to the left of the extended runway centerline. The airplane continued for another 200 meters before the left wing impacted another tree and the airplane broke up. The airplane came to rest about 350-500 meters short of the runway threshold and about 150 meters left of the extended runway centerline. The debris field was about about 210 meters long.

Some early media reports stated that the aircraft had made several landing attempts prior to the crash, however Polish officials confirmed that the airplane was on its first approach to the airbase, when it impacted the trees. Three flights were to land at the airbase in that period of time: the first was a Yakovlev YAK-40 carrying journalists accompanying Poland's president, which made a safe landing. The second was a Russian Ilyushin IL-76, which diverted after two unsuccessful approaches. The third was the presidential Tupolev TU-154M.

Comparisons to the Ron Brown Crash of 1996
There are some similarities between the 2010 crash of the Polish President's aircraft, and the 1996 crash that killed US Commerce Secretary Ron Brown. In both cases, the crash involved a military flight crew using an approach with a non-directional beacon. In an article on the site of The New Republic, Jonathan Kay describes his experience analyzing the Ron Brown accident report, and concluding that the accident had more to do with the mindset of the flight crew than about technology or flight procedures. It will be interesting to see if the IAC report implies that something similar happened with the Polish President's crash.

General view of crash site area

Closeup view of crash site with debris

Photo Credits: AvHerald.com, European Pressphoto Agency, Google Earth

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Polish President and 95 Others Killed in Plane Crash in Russia

The president of Poland, Lech Kaczynski, was killed, along with his wife and numerous Polish officials, when their aircraft, a Polish Air Force Tupolev 154M, crashed near Smolensk, Russia.

The flight, took off from Warsaw with 88 passengers and eight crew members when it crashed at around 10:50 a.m. local time on the outskirts of the town of Pechorsk, during its approach to Smolensk air base. All on board were killed.

This official delegation, included the president, his wife, former president in exile Ryszard Kaczorowski, the head of the national security bureau, the head of the Polish Olympic committee, the president of the national bank, the chief of staff of the armed forces, several members of parliament, and numerous other government officials.

This group had been traveling to Katyn, Russia to commemorate the anniversary of a World War II massacre of about 21,000 Polish prisoners of war by the Soviet Union. After the crash, Bronisław Komorowski assumed the duties of president.

About the Tupolev 154
The Tupolev 154 was designed in the former Soviet Union in the 1960s, and saw wide service in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe, and countries with close ties to the former Soviet Union. There have been about 1000 produced, and about 250 remain in service, and the aircraft is still in limited production.

This is the 22nd fatal crash involving the Tupolev 154 since 1990, with 20 of them involving civilian airliners. The most recent fatal crash was a Caspian Airlines crash in July 2009 in Iran.

World leaders killed in plane crashes
This is not the first time that a head of state or other world leader has been killed in a plane crash. Since 1943, numerous leaders have died as a result of an aircraft accident or due to some deliberate action:

Poland - 1943: Prime Minister Władysław Sikorski was killed on 13 April 1943 nine other passengers and members in the crash of a Liberator bomber shortly after takeoff from Gibralter. The pilot was the only survivor. Sikorski was the head of the Polish government in exile from 1939 until his death.

Philippines - 1957: President Ramon Magsaysay was killed on 17 March 1957 in the crash of a Philippines Air Force C47 aircraft near Cebu, Philippines. The aircraft was on a domestic flight from Cebu to Manila when the right engine malfunctioned during climb. The aircraft crashed into a mountain, killing all five crew members and 20 of the 21 passengers.

United Nations - 1961: Secretary General Dag Hammarskjöld was killed on 18 September 1961 along with 10 other passengers and five crew members in the crash of a DC6 near Ndola, Zambia.

Iraq - 1966: President Abdul Salam Arif was killed on 13 April 1966 in the crash of either an aircraft or a helicopter in southern Iraq.

Bolivia 1969: President René Barrientos was killed on 27 April 1969 when his helicopter crashed into power lines while it was flying between the towns of Tocopaya and Arque, Bolivia.

Mauritania - 1979: Prime Minister Ahmed Ould Bouceif was killed on 27 May 1999 along with 11 other occupants when their de Havilland Buffalo aircraft crashed into the Atlantic Ocean near Dakar, Senegal. Bouceif was traveling from Nouakchott, Mauritania to Dakar to attend an international conference. At the time of the crash, the Dakar airport was closed due to a dust storm.

Ecuador - 1981: President Jaime Roldós Aguilera was killed on 24 May 1981 along with his wife, the defense minister, and seven others in the crash of a Ecuadorean Air Force Avro aircraft while on a domestic flight between Quito and Zapotillo.

Panama - 1981: Panamanian leader Omar Torrijoswas killed on 31 July 1981 along with five others in the crash of a Panamanian Air Force Twin Otter while on a domestic flight between the towns of Pemonome and Coclesito.

Mozambique - 1986 - President Samora Machel was killed on 18 October 1986, along with 34 others, were killed when his Tupolev 134 aircraft crashed near Mbuzini, South Africa, in an area less than 200 meters from the Mozambican border and just north of Swaziland. The aircraft had been on a flight from Mbala, Zambia to Maputo, Mozambique, and had a controlled flight into terrain while the aircraft was descending to Maputo. The crash occurred at night shortly before moonrise. The crew was also confused about the status of the navigational and landing aids at Maputo. Eight of the nine crew members were killed, as were 27 of the 35 passengers.

Pakistan - 1988: President Zia-ul-Haq was killed on 17 August 1988 along with 31 others, were killed when his C130 aircraft crashed just after taking off from Bahawalpur, Pakistan.

Rwanda and Burundi - 1994: President Juvenal Habyarimana of Rwanda and President Cyprien Ntarymira of Burundi were both killed on 6 April 1994 when their plane was reportedly shot down by two surface to air missiles as their Falcon 50 approached the Kigali, Rwanda airport. Three crew members and seven other passengers were also killed.

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia - 2004: President Boris Trajkovski was killed when his King Air crashed near Rotmilja, Bosnia and Herzegovina. There were two crew members and six other passengers on board.

Additional information
CIA World Factbook profile of Poland
Wikipedia profile of Lech Kaczynski
Wikipedia page about the crash
Fatal events for airlines of the former Soviet Union