Michael Jackson's unexpected death generated massive amounts of international media attention about Michael Jackson. Coincidentally, actress Farrah Fawcett died earlier the same day, and both died only a couple of days after long time television personality Ed McMahon. The following ten days after Michael Jackson's death saw the deaths of infomercial pitchman Billy Mays, Oscar winning actor Karl Malden, and former Super Bowl quarterback Steve McNair.
This two week period of celebrity deaths raised the question in the minds of some that these kind of bad things "happen in threes" and having six of these in a row must be a highly unusual event.
AirSafe.com News readers may recall that in February 2009 I looked at the question of "things happening in threes" when it comes to plane crashes, and found out that for 12 of the 13 years that AirSafe.com has tracked fatal and significant plane crashes, there was at least one period where three or more events occurred with less than ten days separating each of them. There were seventeen sequences of these closely spaced sequences of crashes. Three were sequences of five events, three sequences had four events, and the other eleven consisted of three events each. In the first half of 2009, there have been a number of spectacular crashes, but no sequences of three or more separated by ten or fewer days.
The risk of plane crashes can't be treated like the risk of celebrity deaths, so it would not be fair to use the same criteria. For example, there isn't a universal definition of "celebrity," and some celebrities may have only national or regional audience. Also there are many people who may be famous, and much more widely known than most of the six recently deceased entertainment and sports figures mentioned above, but who are not celebrities. For example, former US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara died on July 6th. He had been a well-known, and at times famous, figure in US political and business circles for nearly five decades, but he was no celebrity.
Back to Micheal Jackson and plane crashes. Earlier this year, I wrote that plane crashes "happen in threes" if a crash is listed as a fatal or significant event on AirSafe.com and if there were no more than ten days separating each event in a series of three or more events. There was no scientific reason for picking ten days for airplanes, so with just as much justification, I'll pick seven days for American sports and entertainment celebrities. Over the past two weeks, there have been six events separated by less than seven days. Is this a situation like with airplanes, where this sort of thing happen almost every year? I'll leave that research to the entertainment media. AirSafe.com will stick to flying machines.
Recent Celebrity Deaths
23 June 2009 - Ed McMahon
25 June 2009 - Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson
28 June 2009 - Billy Mays
1 July 2009 - Karl Malden
4 July 2009 - Steve McNair
Plane Crashes Involving Celebrities
06 July 2009
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Yes Dr, tragic and/or catastrophic events happen in 3s. I have been a believer for over five decades -- ever since my mother and grandmother were killed in a 1954 Braniff plane crash near Mason City, IA in a turbulent thunder and hail storm. (DC-3 N61541).
ReplyDeleteThere were two other fatal transportational accidents within that last week in August, 1954.
On Robert McNamara not being a 'celebrity,' I disagree with you. As a Viet Nam-era USAR vet, I fully recall that Robert McNamara received an S-load of daily TV film and media coverage during his role as Secretary of Defense under John Kennedy and then, Lyndon Johnson.
Robert McNamara might have been a visionary at Ford Motor Company, during the 1950s, but he had absolutely no insight what so ever with respect to the war effort in Southeast Asia.
Secretary McNamara and the Pentagon learned much too late that there are nations that had no interest whatsoever in Western-style democracy and were willing to fight and die for that belief as well.
Secretary McNamara is partly responsible for over 50,000 US men and women being lost during the Viet Nam conflict.
Yes, I think he definitely was a celebrity...but not one to ever win an Oscar, a Grammy, or a Super Bowl ring.
After the war, McNamara remained out of the political arena and mostly out of sight for the next four decades until his death.
Lee Raskin, JD
Baltimore, MD
I sincerely regret that this article has been posted, especially by a source that I usually find to be rational and informative. The myth of things happening in threes has as much relevance to the field of aircraft safety (or celebrity deaths, for that matter) as has the number 13 to the incidence of bad luck. As an illustration of the irrelevance of this kind of thinking, the Japanese ascribe the same significance to the number 4 as we do to number 13. I find it hard to believe in luck that has a regional variation. With due respect to the tragic loss of Lee Raskin, it is a common human behaviour pattern to take one personal experience and extrapolate it to a global rule, but such experiences have no statistical validity.
ReplyDeleteI sincerely regret that this article has been posted, especially by a source that I usually find to be rational and informative. The myth of things happening in threes has as much relevance to the field of aircraft safety (or celebrity deaths, for that matter) as has the number 13 to the incidence of bad luck. As an illustration of the irrelevance of this kind of thinking, the Japanese ascribe the same significance to the number 4 as we do to number 13. I find it hard to believe in luck that has a regional variation. With due respect to the tragic loss of Lee Raskin, it is a common human behaviour pattern to take one personal experience and extrapolate it to a global rule, but such experiences have no statistical validity.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree Julian Hiorns that accidents happening in threes is supertitious nonsense. I've always heard the idea that accidents happen in threes, especially in connection with airplane mishaps, but I have never believed it. For one thing, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy - that is, look around enough and I'm sure anyone can find three of anything they wish.
ReplyDelete